Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (81%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Stromsgodset.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Stromsgodset at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 30 July 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bodo/Glimt stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 0W 0D 10L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 exceeds their overall 0.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 2.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Bodo/Glimt hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Stromsgodset, with 2 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Stromsgodset trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 53% versus Stromsgodset 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 64% | Stromsgodset 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.75 xG and Stromsgodset 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.661 / defence 0.915 | Stromsgodset attack 1.025 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.372. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.661 — their λ of 3.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Bodo/Glimt games / 45 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 81% | Draw 10% | Stromsgodset 8%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.23 | Draw 10.00 | Stromsgodset 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (81%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 88% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 5.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 88% — a total xG of 5.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (3.75 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 5.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 88% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Stromsgodset 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jul 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 81% | Draw 10% | Stromsgodset 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 88% | BTTS 71% | xG Bodo/Glimt 3.75 / Stromsgodset 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.661 / def 0.915 | Stromsgodset attack 1.025 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.75
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Stromsgodset xG
71%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 30 July 2025 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Bodo/Glimt 1 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 81% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 8% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 88%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
Record (8 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 5W | Draws 2 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.66) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 3.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.3%. Close behind: 4-1 (6.9%), 2-1 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
81%
1.23
10%
9.68
8%
11.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 1
6.9%
Home win
2 – 1
5.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.75
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
5.04
1.29
Stromsgodset xG
1.23
81%
Home win
9.68
10%
Draw
11.96
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
88%
Over 2.5
1.14
12%
Under 2.5
8.33
74%
Over 3.5
1.35
26%
Under 3.5
3.85
57%
Over 4.5
1.75
43%
Under 4.5
2.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
2%
42.56
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.3%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 3.75 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.29 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 5.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 28W 10D 7L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 12W 8D 25L from 45 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 2.26 PPG from 23 outings (16W 4D 3L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 4D 14L from 23 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.13 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 28W 10D 7L in their last 45 games (2.09 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 12W 8D 25L in their last 45 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Stromsgodset away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.26 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 52%, Stromsgodset 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Bodo/Glimt and 61% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 48% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 61% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Stromsgodset 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Stromsgodset 1-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 3.75 xG and Stromsgodset 1.29 xG, a combined 5.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.66 / defence 0.92 against Stromsgodset attack 1.02 / defence 1.34, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 81% | Draw 10% | Stromsgodset 8%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 88%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 96% and missed. Over 3.5 was 74% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 64%, Stromsgodset 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.