Bodo/Glimt 5-2 Stabaek – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 6 December 2020 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Stabaek's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Bodo/Glimt's favour (2.50 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bodo/Glimt lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.

Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 74% and Stabaek 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 89% | Stabaek 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.98 xG and Stabaek 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.863 / defence 0.842 | Stabaek attack 0.717 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.326. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.863 — their λ of 2.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 27 Bodo/Glimt games / 27 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 80% | Draw 13% | Stabaek 7%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.25 | Draw 7.69 | Stabaek 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (80%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Stabaek 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights