Bodo/Glimt 5-2 Stabaek – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 80% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek encounter.

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Full Analysis

Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Stabaek in Eliteserien (matchday 28). Kick-off: Sunday 6 December 2020 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bodo/Glimt's home record over their last 10 home games: 10W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Stabaek's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Stabaek's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Bodo/Glimt's favour (2.50 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2020, ended Bodo/Glimt 2–2 Stabaek — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.

Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 74% and Stabaek 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 89% | Stabaek 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.98 xG and Stabaek 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.863 / defence 0.842 | Stabaek attack 0.717 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.326. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.863 — their 2.98 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 27 games and Stabaek's last 27.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 80% | Draw 13% | Stabaek 7%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.24 | Draw 7.73 | Stabaek 15.22. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (80%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 50% (last 10 away games).

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