Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Sandefjord travel to Aspmyra Stadion to take on Bodo/Glimt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 July 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 1D 3L at Aspmyra Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Bodo/Glimt) versus 1.80 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bodo/Glimt: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Sandefjord, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Sandefjord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 54% versus Sandefjord 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 66% | Sandefjord 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.42 xG and Sandefjord 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.446 / defence 0.915 | Sandefjord attack 0.875 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.327. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.446 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Bodo/Glimt games / 42 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 67% | Draw 19% | Sandefjord 15%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Sandefjord 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Sandefjord 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Jul 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 67% | Draw 19% | Sandefjord 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 60% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.42 / Sandefjord 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.446 / def 0.915 | Sandefjord attack 0.875 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sandefjord xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 July 2025 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 67% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Record (7 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 5W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.45x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.0%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.40
15%
6.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.49
1.06
Sandefjord xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.40
19%
Draw
6.89
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
9%
11.30
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
1%
77.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.06 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 41 games, going 24W 10D 7L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.34 PPG from 41 outings (16W 7D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 13W 4D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.70 points per game from 20 outings (3W 5D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.54 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 61%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 24W 10D 7L in their last 41 games (2.00 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 16W 7D 18L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Sandefjord away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.15 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sandefjord have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 55%, Sandefjord 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Bodo/Glimt and 65% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 70% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 65% of Sandefjord's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sandefjord 2-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.42 xG and Sandefjord 1.06 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sandefjord landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.45 / defence 0.92 against Sandefjord attack 0.88 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 67% | Draw 19% | Sandefjord 15%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 66%, Sandefjord 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sandefjord's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.