Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 7 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Mjondalen to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 10W 0D 0L at Aspmyra Stadion — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Mjondalen away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bodo/Glimt have won 2, Mjondalen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2020, ended 2–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Bodo/Glimt trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.

Mjondalen trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 70% versus Mjondalen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 90% | Mjondalen 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.02 xG and Mjondalen 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.383 / defence 0.835 | Mjondalen attack 1.054 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.244. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.383 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Bodo/Glimt games / 34 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 58% | Draw 23% | Mjondalen 19%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Mjondalen 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Mjondalen 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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