Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Fredrikstad.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.

Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Fredrikstad away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Fredrikstad's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Fredrikstad and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2025, ended 1–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 58% versus Fredrikstad 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 66% | Fredrikstad 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.72 xG and Fredrikstad 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.528 / defence 0.763 | Fredrikstad attack 0.882 / defence 0.636. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.366. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.528 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fredrikstad's defence strength of 0.636 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Bodo/Glimt games / 59 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 56% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 20%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Fredrikstad 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Fredrikstad 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights