Aalesund 0-2 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Color Line Stadion plays host to Aalesund versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Monday 16 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Aalesund (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Aalesund haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Aalesund's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Color Line Stadion this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Molde have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Molde away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Molde are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Aalesund 0W, Molde 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2020, ended 1–2 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Aalesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 67% and Molde 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aalesund 77% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.12 xG and Molde 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.888 / defence 1.146 | Molde attack 1.066 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.163. Data: 6 Aalesund games / 36 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 30% | Draw 26% | Molde 44%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Molde 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 70% | Molde 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 16 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 30% | Draw 26% | Molde 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Aalesund 1.12 / Molde 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.888 / def 1.146 | Molde attack 1.066 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Molde (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Molde xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Molde kick off?
Aalesund vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 16 May 2022 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Molde?
Aalesund 0 - 2 Molde.
Where is Aalesund vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Molde part of?
Aalesund vs Molde is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 30% chance of winning, Molde a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Aalesund and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Molde?
Record (2 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 2W.
What form are Aalesund and Molde in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.89) and Molde's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.07x) against Aalesund's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
30%
3.37
26%
3.79
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.54
1.42
Molde xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
13.95
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.42 for Molde, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aalesund come into this having played 30 games, going 2W 5D 23L for 0.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. Aalesund haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Molde sit at 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (18W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.63 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Aalesund's home form reads 1W 3D 11L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.67 points per game from 15 outings (7W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aalesund are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Pre-Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Molde in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 2W 5D 23L in their last 30 games (0.37 PPG), while Molde have gone 18W 6D 6L in their last 30 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.40 PPG; Molde away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Aalesund or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 3% of their recent games, Molde in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 1-4 on 16 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Aalesund
1
Draws
5
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Molde?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Molde have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Aalesund 2-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Aalesund, 53% for Molde — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Aalesund and 53% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Aalesund's games and 53% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Aalesund's matches and 53% of Molde's.
Do Aalesund and Molde tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Molde in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Molde cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Aalesund 0-2 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.12 xG and Molde 1.42 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Aalesund fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Molde attack 1.07 / defence 0.81, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 30% | Draw 26% | Molde 44%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 77%, Molde 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Molde (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.