Aalesund 1-3 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Aalesund at 37%, yet in-form Haugesund provide a compelling counter-argument — this Aalesund vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Haugesund travel to Color Line Stadion to take on Aalesund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aalesund — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund at Color Line Stadion this season: 1W 2D 4L from 7 home games — 0.71 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 3.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Haugesund are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Aalesund in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 86%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 86% and Haugesund 36% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 86% | Haugesund 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.30 xG and Haugesund 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.925 / defence 1.865 | Haugesund attack 0.499 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.365. Data: 14 Aalesund games / 14 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 37% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 36%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Haugesund 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aalesund are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haugesund (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aalesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 100% | Haugesund 17% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 37% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Aalesund 1.30 / Haugesund 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.925 / def 1.865 | Haugesund attack 0.499 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Haugesund xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Haugesund kick off?
Aalesund vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 22 August 2020 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Aalesund 1 - 3 Haugesund.
Where is Aalesund vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Haugesund part of?
Aalesund vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 37% chance of winning, Haugesund a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Aalesund and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aalesund and Haugesund in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
37%
2.68
27%
3.76
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.57
1.27
Haugesund xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.27 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Aalesund have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 4D 9L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 4W 3D 7L from 14 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Haugesund are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aalesund have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Aalesund are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 3.07 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 0.86 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Defensively: Haugesund in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 1W 4D 9L in their last 14 games (0.50 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Haugesund away?
Aalesund's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.83 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Aalesund or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Haugesund in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Haugesund won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Aalesund
2
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Haugesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Haugesund have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2023, when Haugesund 6-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Haugesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 100%, Haugesund 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Aalesund) and 17% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 50%; Haugesund in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Aalesund's games and 17% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Aalesund's matches and 17% of Haugesund's.
Do Aalesund and Haugesund tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Aalesund 1-3 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.30 xG and Haugesund 1.27 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Haugesund outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.93 / defence 1.86 against Haugesund attack 0.50 / defence 1.03, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 37% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 36%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 86%, Haugesund 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Haugesund arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.