Waalwijk 1-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Vitesse travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitesse — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 0.90 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Vitesse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Waalwijk, 1 for Vitesse and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Vitesse in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 64% and Vitesse 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 56% | Vitesse 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.73 xG and Vitesse 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.052 / defence 0.999 | Vitesse attack 0.933 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.345. Data: 59 Waalwijk games / 60 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 47% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 26%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Vitesse 3.85. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 70% | Vitesse 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 47% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Waalwijk 1.73 / Vitesse 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.052 / def 0.999 | Vitesse attack 0.933 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Vitesse xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Vitesse kick off?
Waalwijk vs Vitesse kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Waalwijk 1 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is Waalwijk vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Vitesse part of?
Waalwijk vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 47% chance of winning, Vitesse a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Waalwijk and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Vitesse?
Record (3 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Vitesse in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Vitesse (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.05) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.69
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.98
1.25
Vitesse xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
5%
21.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.25 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 17W 19D 23L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse's form line: 20W 15D 24L from 59 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.19 PPG, Vitesse on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.34 PPG from 29 outings (11W 6D 12L).
On the road, Vitesse have gone 10W 7D 12L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.27 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 19D 23L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 20W 15D 24L in their last 59 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Vitesse away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.34 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Waalwijk's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Waalwijk
2
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 4, Vitesse have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2025, when Vitesse 2-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Vitesse?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 62%, Vitesse 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Waalwijk) and 59% (Vitesse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 28% of games; Vitesse in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Waalwijk's games and 55% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Waalwijk's matches and 59% of Vitesse's.
Do Waalwijk and Vitesse tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Waalwijk edge out Vitesse 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Vitesse 1-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.73 xG and Vitesse 1.25 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vitesse landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Vitesse attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 47% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 26%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 56%, Vitesse 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.19 PPG, Vitesse 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.