Waalwijk 0-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Waalwijk have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 3W 2D 5L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.40 for PEC Zwolle. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for PEC Zwolle and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 66% versus PEC Zwolle 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 52% | PEC Zwolle 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.04 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.723 / defence 1.231 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.710 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.274. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Waalwijk games / 29 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 33% | Draw 30% | PEC Zwolle 37%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | PEC Zwolle 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 50% | PEC Zwolle 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 33% | Draw 30% | PEC Zwolle 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Waalwijk 1.04 / PEC Zwolle 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.723 / def 1.231 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.710 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.11
PEC Zwolle xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Waalwijk 0 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 33% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.72) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.71x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
33%
3.00
30%
3.39
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.15
1.11
PEC Zwolle xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.11 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 6W 10D 13L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 6W 5D 18L from 29 games, 0.79 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Waalwijk against 0.79 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 1D 10L from 14 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.76 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 6W 10D 13L in their last 29 games (0.97 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 6W 5D 18L in their last 29 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.07 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
3
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when PEC Zwolle 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 57%, PEC Zwolle 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Waalwijk) and 36% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 29% of games; PEC Zwolle in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 36% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waalwijk's recent games and 36% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Waalwijk 0-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.04 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.11 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.72 / defence 1.23 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.71 / defence 1.26, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 33% | Draw 30% | PEC Zwolle 37%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 52%, PEC Zwolle 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.97 PPG, PEC Zwolle 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.