Waalwijk 3-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 6 November 2022 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, AZ Alkmaar in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Waalwijk 2W, AZ Alkmaar 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 3–1 with Waalwijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 65% and AZ Alkmaar 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 54% | AZ Alkmaar 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.72 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.194 / defence 1.221 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.340 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.314. AZ Alkmaar have an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Waalwijk games / 46 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 31% | Draw 21% | AZ Alkmaar 48%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.23 | Draw 4.76 | AZ Alkmaar 2.08. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 70% | AZ Alkmaar 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 31% | Draw 21% | AZ Alkmaar 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Waalwijk 1.72 / AZ Alkmaar 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.194 / def 1.221 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.340 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
2.15
AZ Alkmaar xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Waalwijk 3 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 31% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 48% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 2W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 1.19x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.34x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
31%
3.20
21%
4.77
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.88
2.15
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.20
31%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
12%
8.59
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
4%
27.53
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Waalwijk and 2.15 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 16D 18L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.96 PPG from 46 outings (27W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Waalwijk's home form reads 7W 5D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.68 points per game from 22 outings (11W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.02 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 76%.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 12W 16D 18L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 27W 9D 10L in their last 46 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.18 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 3-0 on 23 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
1
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2025, when AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Waalwijk, 77% for AZ Alkmaar — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Waalwijk and 77% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Waalwijk's games and 77% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Waalwijk's matches and 77% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AZ Alkmaar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat AZ Alkmaar 3-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.72 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.15 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.19 / defence 1.22 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.34 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 31% | Draw 21% | AZ Alkmaar 48%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 54%, AZ Alkmaar 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.