Waalwijk 1-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 14 August 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.32 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.023. Data: 0 Waalwijk games / 0 AZ Alkmaar games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 44% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 28%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | AZ Alkmaar 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 44% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Waalwijk 1.32 / AZ Alkmaar 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.00
AZ Alkmaar xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Waalwijk 1 - 0 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 44% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.85x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (0.85x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.60
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.32
1.00
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.00 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Pre-Season
AZ Alkmaar
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 3-0 on 23 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
1
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2025, when AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Waalwijk edge out AZ Alkmaar 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.32 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.00 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 44% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 28%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.