Utrecht 0-0 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen meet at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Utrecht's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Utrecht have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Galgenwaard — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEC Nijmegen's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Utrecht, 1.00 for NEC Nijmegen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Utrecht, 0 for NEC Nijmegen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Utrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Utrecht — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 62% versus NEC Nijmegen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 60% | NEC Nijmegen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 0.98 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.721 / defence 0.811 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.044 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.387. Utrecht's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Utrecht games / 40 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 30% | Draw 29% | NEC Nijmegen 40%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | NEC Nijmegen 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Utrecht 50% | NEC Nijmegen 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 30% | Draw 29% | NEC Nijmegen 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Utrecht 0.98 / NEC Nijmegen 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.721 / def 0.811 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.044 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.18
NEC Nijmegen xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Utrecht 0 - 0 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 30% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (2 meetings): Utrecht 2W | Draws 0 | NEC Nijmegen 0W.
What form are Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen in?
Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Utrecht's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.04x) against Utrecht's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
30%
3.30
29%
3.41
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.15
1.18
NEC Nijmegen xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.7 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.18 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Utrecht have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 14W 12D 14L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NEC Nijmegen's form line: 11W 12D 17L from 40 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Utrecht against 1.12 for NEC Nijmegen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Utrecht have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (9W 7D 4L).
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 8W 5D 7L from 20 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.12 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 14W 12D 14L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Utrecht's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.70 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 0-3 on 22 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Utrecht
2
Draws
2
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 6, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 60%, NEC Nijmegen 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Utrecht) and 50% (NEC Nijmegen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Utrecht's games and 65% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Utrecht's recent games and 50% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Utrecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 7, as Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 0.98 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.18 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Utrecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.72 / defence 0.81 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.04 / defence 0.81, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 30% | Draw 29% | NEC Nijmegen 40%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 60%, NEC Nijmegen 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.35 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.