Utrecht 0-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utrecht host Cambuur at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Utrecht stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Utrecht's home record at Stadion Galgenwaard: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Utrecht are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Utrecht register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Cambuur in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Utrecht, 1 for Cambuur and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 3–2 with Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Utrecht in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utrecht 66% and Cambuur 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Utrecht 63% | Cambuur 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.63 xG and Cambuur 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.969 / defence 0.969 | Cambuur attack 1.001 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.438. Data: 35 Utrecht games / 35 Cambuur games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Utrecht 43% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 33%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Cambuur 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 70% | Cambuur 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 43% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Utrecht 1.63 / Cambuur 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.969 / def 0.969 | Cambuur attack 1.001 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Cambuur xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Cambuur kick off?
Utrecht vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Utrecht 0 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Utrecht vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Cambuur part of?
Utrecht vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 43% chance of winning, Cambuur a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Utrecht and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): Utrecht 1W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Utrecht and Cambuur in?
Utrecht (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Cambuur (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (0.97) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
43%
2.32
24%
4.16
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.02
1.40
Cambuur xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
6%
15.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.40 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Utrecht have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 12W 11D 12L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur's form line: 11W 6D 18L from 35 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utrecht on 1.34 PPG, Cambuur on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Utrecht have posted 1.76 PPG from 17 outings (8W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 6W 3D 8L from 17 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Utrecht are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.51 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Cambuur in 71%.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 12W 11D 12L in their last 35 games (1.34 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 11W 6D 18L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Cambuur away?
Utrecht's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.76 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Utrecht and Cambuur runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Utrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utrecht's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Utrecht
1
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 2, Cambuur have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Cambuur 0-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Cambuur?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 71%, Cambuur 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Utrecht and 65% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Utrecht's games and 53% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Utrecht's matches and 65% of Cambuur's.
Do Utrecht and Cambuur tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Utrecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht and Cambuur finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.63 xG and Cambuur 1.40 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Utrecht fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Cambuur landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Cambuur attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 43% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 33%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 63%, Cambuur 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.34 PPG, Cambuur 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.