Twente 1-2 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Twente at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Twente vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Grolsch Veste plays host to Twente versus NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 24 October 2021 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
Twente's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 3D 2L from 9 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.22 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Twente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Twente have posted 2W 2D 0L at De Grolsch Veste — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.22 PPG across 9 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.67 for Twente, 1.22 for NEC Nijmegen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Twente have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, NEC Nijmegen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Twente — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Twente 78% versus NEC Nijmegen 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Twente 44% | NEC Nijmegen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Twente 1.81 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Twente attack 0.984 / defence 0.895 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.976 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.367. NEC Nijmegen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Twente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Twente games / 9 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Twente 52% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 25%. Fair-value odds: Twente 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | NEC Nijmegen 4.00. Twente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Twente are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Twente if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Twente 75% | NEC Nijmegen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Twente vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: De Grolsch Veste • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Twente 52% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Twente 1.81 / NEC Nijmegen 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Twente attack 0.984 / def 0.895 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.976 / def 1.387 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Twente (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Twente xG
Expected Goals
1.20
NEC Nijmegen xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Twente vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Twente vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at De Grolsch Veste.
What was the final score in Twente vs NEC Nijmegen?
Twente 1 - 2 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Twente vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at De Grolsch Veste.
What competition is Twente vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Twente vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Twente vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Twente a 52% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Twente vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Twente and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Twente vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and NEC Nijmegen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Twente and NEC Nijmegen in?
Twente (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Twente's attack at 0.98x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.98x) against Twente's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
52%
1.93
23%
4.33
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Twente xG
Total xG
3.00
1.20
NEC Nijmegen xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
4%
24.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Twente vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Twente and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Twente and 1.20 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Twente vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Twente have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 4W 3D 2L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Twente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen's form line: 3W 2D 4L from 9 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Twente are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NEC Nijmegen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Twente have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L).
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.22 PPG overall record — NEC Nijmegen travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Twente are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.11 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Twente have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Twente
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Twente and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Twente have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 games (1.67 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Twente at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Twente's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Twente at home: 2.00 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Twente or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Twente have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Twente won 4-0 on 12 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Twente have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Twente
3
Draws
1
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Twente have won 6, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Twente and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Twente 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between Twente and NEC Nijmegen?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Twente see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Twente, 75% for NEC Nijmegen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Twente) and 50% (NEC Nijmegen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Twente home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Twente play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Twente's games and 75% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Twente vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Twente's recent games and 50% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Twente and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Twente have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NEC Nijmegen defy the odds to beat Twente 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Twente 1-2 at De Grolsch Veste, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 1.81 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.20 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Twente fell 0.8 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.98 / defence 1.39, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Twente 52% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 25%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a NEC Nijmegen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 44%, NEC Nijmegen 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Twente's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Twente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.