Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Utrecht travel to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Utrecht — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Utrecht have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sparta Rotterdam 1.40 PPG, Utrecht 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 2 for Utrecht and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 0–1 with Utrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Utrecht trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 48% versus Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 58% | Utrecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.29 xG and Utrecht 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.861 / defence 0.969 | Utrecht attack 0.697 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.447. Data: 46 Sparta Rotterdam games / 46 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 41% | Draw 34% | Utrecht 26%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Utrecht 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Utrecht 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 41% | Draw 34% | Utrecht 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.29 / Utrecht 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.861 / def 0.969 | Utrecht attack 0.697 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Utrecht xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 2 Utrecht.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 41% chance of winning, Utrecht a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 1W | Draws 0 | Utrecht 2W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Utrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating (0.86) and Utrecht's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
41%
2.45
34%
2.97
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.26
0.98
Utrecht xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.98 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 23W 11D 14L from 48 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 18L across 48 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.67 PPG, Utrecht on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 12W 5D 7L from 24 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utrecht's away record stands at 9W 5D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.42 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 23W 11D 14L in their last 48 games (1.67 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 18W 12D 18L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Utrecht away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.71 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Utrecht in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when Utrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sparta Rotterdam
1
Draws
5
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, Utrecht have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Utrecht 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sparta Rotterdam see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 50%, Utrecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Sparta Rotterdam and 67% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utrecht in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 50% of Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 67% of Utrecht's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Utrecht defy the odds to beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.29 xG and Utrecht 0.98 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Utrecht outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Utrecht attack 0.70 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 41% | Draw 34% | Utrecht 26%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 58%, Utrecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Utrecht's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.67 PPG, Utrecht 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.