Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 33 as Sparta Rotterdam welcome PEC Zwolle to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sparta Rotterdam at 1.20 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sparta Rotterdam, 0 for PEC Zwolle and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 47% versus PEC Zwolle 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sparta Rotterdam 41% | PEC Zwolle 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.04 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.747 / defence 1.089 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.712 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.281. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Sparta Rotterdam games / 32 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 36% | Draw 31% | PEC Zwolle 34%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | PEC Zwolle 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | PEC Zwolle 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 36% | Draw 31% | PEC Zwolle 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.04 / PEC Zwolle 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.747 / def 1.089 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.712 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.99
PEC Zwolle xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 36% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.75x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
36%
2.79
31%
3.27
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.03
0.99
PEC Zwolle xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.99 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam come into this having played 32 games, going 6W 11D 15L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 0.84 PPG from 32 outings (7W 6D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 0.91 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sparta Rotterdam's home form reads 3W 7D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.81 points per game from 16 outings (4W 1D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.78 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 6W 11D 15L in their last 32 games (0.91 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 7W 6D 19L in their last 32 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.00 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
3
Draws
3
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 56%, PEC Zwolle 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Sparta Rotterdam and 38% for PEC Zwolle.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 31% of games; PEC Zwolle in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 31% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 38% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat PEC Zwolle 2-0 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.04 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.99 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PEC Zwolle landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.75 / defence 1.09 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.71 / defence 1.22, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 36% | Draw 31% | PEC Zwolle 34%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 41%, PEC Zwolle 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 0.91 PPG, PEC Zwolle 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.