Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam host NEC Nijmegen at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sparta Rotterdam carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sparta Rotterdam register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NEC Nijmegen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sparta Rotterdam, 0 for NEC Nijmegen and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
NEC Nijmegen in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 46% versus NEC Nijmegen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 46% | NEC Nijmegen 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.33 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.094 / defence 0.929 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.954 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.303. NEC Nijmegen's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Sparta Rotterdam games / 43 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 40% | Draw 28% | NEC Nijmegen 32%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | NEC Nijmegen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 60% | NEC Nijmegen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 40% | Draw 28% | NEC Nijmegen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.33 / NEC Nijmegen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.094 / def 0.929 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.954 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.16
NEC Nijmegen xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 0 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 40% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (2 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 2 | NEC Nijmegen 0W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 1.09x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.53
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.49
1.16
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
8%
12.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.16 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 12W 13D 18L from 43 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 17L across 43 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.14 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 7W 6D 8L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 8W 6D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.09 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 11W 15D 17L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.29 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
6
Draws
2
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 52%, NEC Nijmegen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 48% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 62% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 48% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over NEC Nijmegen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat NEC Nijmegen 2-0 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.33 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.95 / defence 0.77, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 40% | Draw 28% | NEC Nijmegen 32%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 46%, NEC Nijmegen 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.14 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.