Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam meet at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's home record at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Volendam have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Sparta Rotterdam against 1.30 for FC Volendam. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Sparta Rotterdam have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with FC Volendam managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Rotterdam and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Sparta Rotterdam half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 52% versus FC Volendam 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 46% | FC Volendam 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.44 xG and FC Volendam 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.758 / defence 0.886 | FC Volendam attack 0.528 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.358. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Sparta Rotterdam games / 27 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 55% | Draw 30% | FC Volendam 15%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | FC Volendam 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Rotterdam (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 40% | FC Volendam 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 55% | Draw 30% | FC Volendam 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.44 / FC Volendam 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.758 / def 0.886 | FC Volendam attack 0.528 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.64
FC Volendam xG
37%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 55% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam?
Record (5 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 4W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.53x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
55%
1.81
30%
3.39
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.07
0.64
FC Volendam xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
4%
27.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 11.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.64 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 20W 17D 24L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 32W 10D 19L from 61 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 12W 6D 12L from 30 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.79 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 64%.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 20W 17D 24L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 32W 10D 19L in their last 61 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.23 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 on 3 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Sparta Rotterdam
0
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, FC Volendam have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 53%, FC Volendam 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 67% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 57% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 67% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat FC Volendam 2-0 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.44 xG and FC Volendam 0.64 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.76 / defence 0.89 against FC Volendam attack 0.53 / defence 1.12, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 55% | Draw 30% | FC Volendam 15%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 46%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.