PSV Eindhoven 3-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Philips Stadion plays host to PSV Eindhoven versus PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PSV Eindhoven have collected 2.25 PPG across 8 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 0D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.38 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven at Philips Stadion this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 home games — 2.25 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.75 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 0W 1D 7L from 8 games (0.12 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 2.13 in PSV Eindhoven's favour (2.25 vs 0.12) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
PSV Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 62% versus PEC Zwolle 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PSV Eindhoven 88% | PEC Zwolle 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.15 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.174 / defence 1.350 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.537 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.469. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing PSV Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 PSV Eindhoven games / 8 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 62% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 18%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | PEC Zwolle 5.56. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: PSV Eindhoven 75% | PEC Zwolle 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 62% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.15 / PEC Zwolle 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.174 / def 1.350 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.537 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.06
PEC Zwolle xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle?
PSV Eindhoven 3 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 62% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 6W-0D-2L in 8 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.38 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 0W-1D-7L in 8 | 0.12 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PSV Eindhoven's attack rating (1.17) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.54x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
62%
1.61
20%
5.00
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.22
1.06
PEC Zwolle xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
2%
48.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.06 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PSV Eindhoven's recent record stands at 6W 0D 2L from 8 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 7L across 8 games — 0.12 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PSV Eindhoven by 2.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PSV Eindhoven have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.25 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; PEC Zwolle in 25%.
Last 8 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 6W 0D 2L in their last 8 games (2.25 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 1D 7L in their last 8 (0.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.25 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 1-7 on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 6-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
PEC Zwolle see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 75%, PEC Zwolle 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for PSV Eindhoven and 25% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of PSV Eindhoven's recent matches and 25% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 25% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat PEC Zwolle 3-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.15 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.06 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.17 / defence 1.35 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.54 / defence 1.38, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 62% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 18%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 88%, PEC Zwolle 12%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.12. Form held, and they took the win. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.