PSV Eindhoven 6-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven host Groningen at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven at Philips Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Philips Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — PSV Eindhoven are significantly better at Philips Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
PSV Eindhoven are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 for Groningen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 2–4 with Groningen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Groningen in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 63% and Groningen 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PSV Eindhoven 74% | Groningen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.49 xG and Groningen 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.280 / defence 0.662 | Groningen attack 0.835 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.219. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing PSV Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PSV Eindhoven's defence rating of 0.662 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 PSV Eindhoven games / 54 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 18% | Groningen 6%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.33 | Draw 5.56 | Groningen 16.67. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (75%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: PSV Eindhoven 40% | Groningen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 18% | Groningen 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 47% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.49 / Groningen 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.280 / def 0.662 | Groningen attack 0.835 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Groningen xG
47%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
PSV Eindhoven 6 - 0 Groningen.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 75% chance of winning, Groningen a 6% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Groningen?
Record (3 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 2W | Draws 0 | Groningen 1W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Groningen in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Groningen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.28x the league average against Groningen's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus PSV Eindhoven's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
75%
1.33
18%
5.43
6%
15.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.16
0.67
Groningen xG
1.33
75%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
15.90
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
8%
12.01
Win to Nil
38%
2.61
1%
190.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.67 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, PSV Eindhoven have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 38W 6D 10L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 12W 13D 29L from 54 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PSV Eindhoven have posted 2.48 PPG from 27 outings (22W 1D 4L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 6W 5D 16L from 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.15 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Groningen in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Groningen in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 38W 6D 10L in their last 54 games (2.22 PPG), while Groningen have gone 12W 13D 29L in their last 54 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Groningen away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.48 PPG; Groningen away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PSV Eindhoven and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when PSV Eindhoven won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PSV Eindhoven's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, Groningen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Groningen 1-2 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Groningen?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 59%, Groningen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for PSV Eindhoven and 67% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Groningen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 67% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 67% of Groningen's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Groningen tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Groningen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Groningen 6-0 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.49 xG and Groningen 0.67 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.28 / defence 0.66 against Groningen attack 0.83 / defence 1.34, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 18% | Groningen 6%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 74%, Groningen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.