PEC Zwolle 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 12 as PEC Zwolle welcome Sparta Rotterdam to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sparta Rotterdam — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Sparta Rotterdam 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 56% versus Sparta Rotterdam 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 49% | Sparta Rotterdam 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.07 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.704 / defence 1.105 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.961 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.748 / away 1.500. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 PEC Zwolle games / 45 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 26% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 49%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.04. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: PEC Zwolle 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 26% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.07 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.704 / def 1.105 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.961 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.748 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Sparta Rotterdam xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 26% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (6 meetings): PEC Zwolle 2W | Draws 2 | Sparta Rotterdam 2W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.70) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
26%
3.90
25%
4.00
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.67
1.59
Sparta Rotterdam xG
3.90
26%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
5%
19.16
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.59 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 12W 14D 19L from 45 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 18L across 45 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.11 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 8W 5D 9L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 8W 6D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.18 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 12W 14D 19L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 14W 13D 18L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Sparta Rotterdam's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.32 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 46%, Sparta Rotterdam 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (PEC Zwolle) and 46% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 27% of games; Sparta Rotterdam in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 46% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PEC Zwolle defy the odds to beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.07 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.70 / defence 1.10 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.96 / defence 0.87, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 26% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 49%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 49%, Sparta Rotterdam 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.11 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.