PEC Zwolle 0-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Heerenveen travel to MAC³PARK Stadion to take on PEC Zwolle. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 0W 1D 6L from 7 Eredivisie matches — 0.14 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.29 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 0W 1D 2L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Heerenveen — All Games: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heerenveen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heerenveen's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Heerenveen — 1.29 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.43 vs 0.14). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
Heerenveen trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 29% versus Heerenveen 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PEC Zwolle 14% | Heerenveen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 0.99 xG and Heerenveen 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.634 / defence 1.124 | Heerenveen attack 0.773 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.428. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 PEC Zwolle games / 7 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 29% | Heerenveen 42%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Heerenveen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 33% | Heerenveen 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 29% | Heerenveen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG PEC Zwolle 0.99 / Heerenveen 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.634 / def 1.124 | Heerenveen attack 0.773 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Heerenveen xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 29% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 0W-1D-6L in 7 | 0.14 PPG | GF 0.29 / GA 1.86 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.63x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
29%
3.39
29%
3.50
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.23
1.24
Heerenveen xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
9%
11.74
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.24 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 7 games, going 0W 1D 6L for 0.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Heerenveen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heerenveen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.29 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heerenveen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.43 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Heerenveen in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
Heerenveen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 1D 6L in their last 7 games (0.14 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Heerenveen away?
Heerenveen's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.33 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Heerenveen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Heerenveen 4-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 33%, Heerenveen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for PEC Zwolle and 33% for Heerenveen.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 33%; PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 67% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 33% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out PEC Zwolle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat PEC Zwolle 0-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 0.99 xG and Heerenveen 1.24 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.63 / defence 1.12 against Heerenveen attack 0.77 / defence 1.16, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 29% | Heerenveen 42%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 14%, Heerenveen 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Heerenveen's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Heerenveen arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.