PEC Zwolle vs Groningen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host Groningen at in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Groningen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Groningen are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. PEC Zwolle register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Groningen in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 0 for Groningen and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Groningen in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 66% and Groningen 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 60% | Groningen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.60 xG and Groningen 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.813 / defence 0.972 | Groningen attack 1.010 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Data: 38 PEC Zwolle games / 38 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 33% | Draw 23% | Groningen 43%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Groningen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 60% | Groningen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 33% | Draw 23% | Groningen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.60 / Groningen 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.813 / def 0.972 | Groningen attack 1.010 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: Groningen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Groningen xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Groningen kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Groningen is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Groningen part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 33% chance of winning, Groningen a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Groningen?
Record (6 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 5 | Groningen 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Groningen in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Groningen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.81x the league average against Groningen's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
33%
3.00
23%
4.28
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.45
1.84
Groningen xG
3.00
33%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
5%
19.01
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.84 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 10D 18L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen's form line: 16W 6D 16L from 38 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.05 PPG, Groningen on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — PEC Zwolle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Groningen have gone 8W 2D 9L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.50 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Groningen in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while Groningen have gone 16W 6D 16L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Groningen away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.47 PPG; Groningen away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Groningen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
5
Draws
0
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Groningen have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Groningen?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 47%, Groningen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (PEC Zwolle) and 47% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 58% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 47% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Groningen tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Groningen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.