PEC Zwolle 0-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 1W 2D 4L from 7 home games — 0.71 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Fortuna Sittard goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 40% versus Fortuna Sittard 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 33% | Fortuna Sittard 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.26 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.602 / defence 0.974 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.725 / defence 1.749. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.327. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.602 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.749 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 PEC Zwolle games / 15 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 44% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Sittard 27%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Fortuna Sittard 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 29% | Fortuna Sittard 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 44% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Sittard 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.26 / Fortuna Sittard 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.602 / def 0.974 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.725 / def 1.749 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Fortuna Sittard xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 44% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.60) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.75), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.72x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.45
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.20
0.94
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.94 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 15 games, going 1W 3D 11L for 0.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Sittard sit at 0.60 PPG from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.40 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 0.60 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 1W 2D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Sittard have taken 0.29 points per game from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.53 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.07 scored and 2.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard in 73%.
Last 15 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 3D 11L in their last 15 games (0.40 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 3D 10L in their last 15 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.71 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PEC Zwolle won 1-4 on 26 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
3
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 5, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 3-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 29%, Fortuna Sittard 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (PEC Zwolle) and 57% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 57% of games; Fortuna Sittard in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 71% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 57% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat PEC Zwolle 0-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.26 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.94 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.60 / defence 0.97 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.72 / defence 1.75, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 44% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Sittard 27%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Fortuna Sittard win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 33%, Fortuna Sittard 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 0.40 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.