NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht meet at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 March 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 3W 7D 0L at Goffertstadion — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.30 for Utrecht — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 2 for Utrecht and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 48% versus Utrecht 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 38% | Utrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.93 xG and Utrecht 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.067 / defence 0.827 | Utrecht attack 1.351 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.254. Utrecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 NEC Nijmegen games / 58 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 24% | Utrecht 27%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Utrecht 3.70. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 80% | Utrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 24% | Utrecht 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.93 / Utrecht 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.067 / def 0.827 | Utrecht attack 1.351 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Utrecht xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 2 Utrecht.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 49% chance of winning, Utrecht a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht?
Record (3 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 0W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 2W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Utrecht (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.07x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (1.35x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.16
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.33
1.40
Utrecht xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
4%
25.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.40 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 16W 20D 22L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht's form line: 22W 17D 19L from 58 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.43 for Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1.07 PPG from 29 outings (6W 13D 10L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 9W 7D 13L from 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.53 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 16W 20D 22L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 22W 17D 19L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Utrecht away?
Utrecht's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.07 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 0-3 on 22 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
2
Draws
6
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, Utrecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 52%, Utrecht 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (NEC Nijmegen) and 69% (Utrecht).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 59% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 69% of Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht finished level at 2-2 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.93 xG and Utrecht 1.40 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.07 / defence 0.83 against Utrecht attack 1.35 / defence 1.17, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 24% | Utrecht 27%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 38%, Utrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.17 PPG, Utrecht 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.