NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen host Sparta Rotterdam at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 15 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
NEC Nijmegen's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
NEC Nijmegen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 60% of Sparta Rotterdam's (from NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 1 for Sparta Rotterdam and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Sparta Rotterdam — a NEC Nijmegen win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 58% and Sparta Rotterdam 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 68% | Sparta Rotterdam 54%). Note also that Sparta Rotterdam surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while NEC Nijmegen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.60 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.068 / defence 0.936 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.807 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.304. Data: built from NEC Nijmegen's last 49 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 49.
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 52% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 23%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.93 | Draw 4.01 | Sparta Rotterdam 4.31. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches — though recent form (NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NEC Nijmegen 70% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Rotterdam 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 16 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 52% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.60 / Sparta Rotterdam 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.068 / def 0.936 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.807 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sparta Rotterdam xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam FAQs
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 16) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 52% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.07x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from NEC Nijmegen's last 49 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.01
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.59
0.98
Sparta Rotterdam xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
5%
21.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.98 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 19W 12D 19L from 50 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 22L across 50 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.38 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 11W 5D 9L from their last 25 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 10W 3D 12L across their last 25 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.30 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam in 62%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
NEC Nijmegen (Home) vs Sparta Rotterdam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam Form FAQs
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 19W 12D 19L in their last 50 games (1.38 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 16W 12D 22L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.52 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 17 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
6
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2026: Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 64%, Sparta Rotterdam 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for NEC Nijmegen and 52% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 60% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 64% of Sparta Rotterdam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 16, as NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.60 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.98 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 52% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 23%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 68%, Sparta Rotterdam 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.38 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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