NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as NEC Nijmegen welcome Heracles to Goffertstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at Goffertstadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Heracles have posted 0W 1D 7L from 8 away outings — 0.12 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.12 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
NEC Nijmegen are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for NEC Nijmegen, 0 for Heracles and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Heracles in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 50% versus Heracles 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 50% | Heracles 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.31 xG and Heracles 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.850 / defence 1.160 | Heracles attack 0.649 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.349. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 NEC Nijmegen games / 18 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 43% | Draw 28% | Heracles 29%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Heracles 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: NEC Nijmegen 38% | Heracles 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 43% | Draw 28% | Heracles 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.31 / Heracles 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.850 / def 1.160 | Heracles attack 0.649 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Heracles xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
NEC Nijmegen 0 - 0 Heracles.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 43% chance of winning, Heracles a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles?
Record (1 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 1W | Draws 0 | Heracles 0W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Heracles in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Heracles (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (0.85) and Heracles's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.58
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.33
1.01
Heracles xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.01 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 7W 4D 7L from 18 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 10L across 18 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.39 PPG, Heracles on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 0W 1D 7L across 8 trips, a 0.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.17 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Heracles in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Heracles have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Heracles away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.00 PPG; Heracles away: 0.12 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Heracles in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: NEC Nijmegen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, Heracles have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 38%, Heracles 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (NEC Nijmegen) and 50% (Heracles).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 38% of games; Heracles in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 62% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 50% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Heracles tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Heracles in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at NEC Nijmegen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 19, as NEC Nijmegen and Heracles drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.31 xG and Heracles 1.01 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Heracles landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Heracles attack 0.65 / defence 1.32, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 43% | Draw 28% | Heracles 29%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 50%, Heracles 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Heracles's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.39 PPG, Heracles 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.