NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 14 as NEC Nijmegen welcome Ajax to Goffertstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen at Goffertstadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajax — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (NEC Nijmegen) versus 1.10 (Ajax). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Ajax have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against NEC Nijmegen's 0 victories.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Ajax winning.
It is worth noting that Ajax have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
NEC Nijmegen in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ajax in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 56% and Ajax 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 48% | Ajax 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.36 xG and Ajax 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.028 / defence 1.243 | Ajax attack 1.095 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.477. Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 NEC Nijmegen games / 46 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 46% | Draw 21% | Ajax 33%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.17 | Draw 4.76 | Ajax 3.03. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.36 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 79%. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 70% | Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 46% | Draw 21% | Ajax 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 79% | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.36 / Ajax 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.028 / def 1.243 | Ajax attack 1.095 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Ajax xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 2 Ajax.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 46% chance of winning, Ajax a 33% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Ajax?
Record (4 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 0W | Draws 1 | Ajax 3W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Ajax in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Ajax (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (1.03) and Ajax's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.1%), 1-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
46%
2.18
21%
4.68
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
4.37
2.01
Ajax xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.86
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
9%
10.62
Win to Nil
6%
16.30
3%
32.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 2.01 for Ajax, a combined total of 4.37.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 46 games, going 10W 21D 15L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-D. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 1.83 PPG from 46 outings (24W 12D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
NEC Nijmegen's home form reads 5W 12D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 1.61 points per game from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.43 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Ajax in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 10W 21D 15L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while Ajax have gone 24W 12D 10L in their last 46 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.17 PPG; Ajax away: 1.61 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ajax in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Ajax runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Ajax won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
4
Draws
5
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Ajax have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NEC Nijmegen at 78%, Ajax at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for NEC Nijmegen and 74% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 74% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 74% of Ajax's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Ajax tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ajax in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajax defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat NEC Nijmegen 1-2 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.36 xG and Ajax 2.01 xG, a combined 4.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.03 / defence 1.24 against Ajax attack 1.09 / defence 1.35, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 46% | Draw 21% | Ajax 33%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 48%, Ajax 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.