NAC Breda 4-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NAC Breda and Waalwijk meet at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — NAC Breda are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk's record over their last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waalwijk's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward NAC Breda. A 1.10 PPG lead over Waalwijk (1.20 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) — NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Waalwijk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 63% versus Waalwijk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 58% | Waalwijk 58%). Note also that Waalwijk surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while NAC Breda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.80 xG and Waalwijk 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.853 / defence 0.921 | Waalwijk attack 0.915 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.266. Waalwijk's defence rating of 1.318 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing NAC Breda's projected output up. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 9 games and Waalwijk's last 43.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 54% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 22%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.84 | Draw 4.24 | Waalwijk 4.51. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 70% (last 10 home games) | Waalwijk 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 10 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 54% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG NAC Breda 1.80 / Waalwijk 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.853 / def 0.921 | Waalwijk attack 0.915 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Waalwijk xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NAC Breda vs Waalwijk FAQs
What time does NAC Breda vs Waalwijk kick off?
NAC Breda vs Waalwijk kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Waalwijk?
NAC Breda 4 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is NAC Breda vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Waalwijk part of?
NAC Breda vs Waalwijk is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 10) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 54% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both NAC Breda and Waalwijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NAC Breda vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.85) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.92x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from NAC Breda's last 9 games and Waalwijk's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.24
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.86
1.07
Waalwijk xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
4%
27.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NAC Breda vs Waalwijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.07 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 19W 10D 14L from 43 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 27L across 43 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours NAC Breda by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 10W 6D 5L from their last 21 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 3W 2D 16L across their last 21 away games, a 0.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.05 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
NAC Breda (Home) vs Waalwijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NAC Breda
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ NAC Breda vs Waalwijk Form FAQs
What form are NAC Breda and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 19W 10D 14L in their last 43 games (1.56 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 7W 9D 27L in their last 43 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Waalwijk away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.71 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between NAC Breda and Waalwijk, the earliest from October 2024. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Waalwijk have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won Waalwijk 5-0 NAC Breda on 9 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Last 3 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
0
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ NAC Breda vs Waalwijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Waalwijk?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, NAC Breda have won 1, Waalwijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Waalwijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Waalwijk 4-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 67%, Waalwijk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (NAC Breda) and 57% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Waalwijk in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NAC Breda vs Waalwijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NAC Breda and Waalwijk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of NAC Breda's games and 48% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NAC Breda and Waalwijk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of NAC Breda's recent games and 57% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Waalwijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 81% of Waalwijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Waalwijk 4-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.80 xG and Waalwijk 1.07 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 0.92 against Waalwijk attack 0.92 / defence 1.32, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 54% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 22%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 58%, Waalwijk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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