NAC Breda 1-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Relegation Round as NAC Breda welcome Emmen to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 31 May 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Emmen's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 0, Emmen 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Emmen in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 50% versus Emmen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 57% | Emmen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 2.09 xG and Emmen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Emmen attack 0.947 / defence 1.451. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.314. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.451 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 NAC Breda games / 34 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 52% | Draw 24% | Emmen 25%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Emmen 4.00. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 50% | Emmen 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 52% | Draw 24% | Emmen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG NAC Breda 2.09 / Emmen 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Emmen attack 0.947 / def 1.451 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Emmen xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Emmen kick off?
NAC Breda vs Emmen kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Emmen?
NAC Breda 1 - 2 Emmen.
Where is NAC Breda vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Emmen part of?
NAC Breda vs Emmen is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 52% chance of winning, Emmen a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both NAC Breda and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Emmen?
Record (2 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and Emmen in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Emmen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.85x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.25
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.52
1.43
Emmen xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
3%
32.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.43 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 11D 13L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.12 PPG from 42 outings (12W 11D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Emmen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 11W 7D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (5W 2D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.12 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Emmen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 18W 11D 13L in their last 42 games (1.55 PPG), while Emmen have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Emmen away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.90 PPG; Emmen away: 0.81 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Emmen in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Emmen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 48%, Emmen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (NAC Breda) and 57% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 62% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of NAC Breda's recent games and 57% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Emmen tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Emmen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat NAC Breda 1-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 2.09 xG and Emmen 1.43 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Emmen attack 0.95 / defence 1.45, drawn from 0/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 52% | Draw 24% | Emmen 25%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Emmen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 57%, Emmen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Emmen's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Emmen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.