Heracles 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 39%, yet in-form Willem II provide a compelling counter-argument — this Heracles vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host Willem II at Asito Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 3W 3D 4L at Asito Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Heracles, 1 for Willem II and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Heracles trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Willem II trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 50% versus Willem II 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 69% | Willem II 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.45 xG and Willem II 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.932 / defence 1.132 | Willem II attack 0.853 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.381. Data: 36 Heracles games / 2 Willem II games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Heracles 39% | Draw 28% | Willem II 33%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Willem II 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 50% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Asito Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 39% | Draw 28% | Willem II 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Heracles 1.45 / Willem II 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.932 / def 1.132 | Willem II attack 0.853 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Heracles (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Willem II xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Willem II kick off?
Heracles vs Willem II kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Asito Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Willem II?
Heracles 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Heracles vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs Willem II part of?
Heracles vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 39% chance of winning, Willem II a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Heracles and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 1 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Heracles and Willem II in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Willem II (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.93) and Willem II's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
39%
2.60
28%
3.56
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.78
1.33
Willem II xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Heracles and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Heracles and 1.33 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Heracles have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 9W 7D 20L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II's form line: 23W 9D 4L from 36 games, 2.17 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heracles.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Heracles have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 9W 6D 3L from 18 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 2.11 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Willem II in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 9W 7D 20L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while Willem II have gone 23W 9D 4L in their last 36 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.22 PPG; Willem II away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Heracles's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Heracles
2
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, Willem II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Willem II 1-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Willem II?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, Willem II 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Heracles) and 28% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Heracles's games and 56% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 72% of Heracles's recent games and 28% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and Willem II tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Willem II in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as Heracles and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.45 xG and Willem II 1.33 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against Willem II attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 39% | Draw 28% | Willem II 33%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 69%, Willem II 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.