Heracles 1-3 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Heracles at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host Utrecht at Erve Asito in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles's home record at Erve Asito: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Erve Asito.
Utrecht — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Utrecht have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Heracles have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Heracles have won 1, Utrecht 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Heracles winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Utrecht in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 55% versus Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 75% | Utrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.71 xG and Utrecht 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.009 / defence 1.030 | Utrecht attack 0.825 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.507. Data: 3 Heracles games / 38 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 45% | Draw 28% | Utrecht 26%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Utrecht 3.85. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 50% | Utrecht 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 45% | Draw 28% | Utrecht 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Heracles 1.71 / Utrecht 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.009 / def 1.030 | Utrecht attack 0.825 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: Heracles (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Utrecht xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Utrecht kick off?
Heracles vs Utrecht kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Utrecht?
Heracles 1 - 3 Utrecht.
Where is Heracles vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Utrecht part of?
Heracles vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 45% chance of winning, Utrecht a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Heracles and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Utrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Heracles 1W | Draws 0 | Utrecht 1W.
What form are Heracles and Utrecht in?
Heracles (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Utrecht (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Heracles's attack rating (1.01) and Utrecht's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.54
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.99
1.28
Utrecht xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
5%
20.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Heracles and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Heracles and 1.28 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles come into this having played 40 games, going 28W 4D 8L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.42 PPG from 40 outings (16W 9D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Heracles's home form reads 16W 3D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 2.62 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 28W 4D 8L in their last 40 games (2.20 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 16W 9D 15L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Utrecht away?
Heracles's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.55 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Heracles or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Utrecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and Utrecht runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Utrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Heracles
2
Draws
5
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 1, Utrecht have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Heracles 0-0 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 55%, Utrecht 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Heracles and 70% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Heracles's games and 55% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Heracles's matches and 70% of Utrecht's.
Do Heracles and Utrecht tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Heracles 1-3 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.71 xG and Utrecht 1.28 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Utrecht outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Utrecht attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 3/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 45% | Draw 28% | Utrecht 26%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 75%, Utrecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Utrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.