Heracles 1-1 GO Ahead Eagles – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Heracles at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles make the trip to Erve Asito to face Heracles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 January 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Heracles's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Erve Asito, Heracles have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
GO Ahead Eagles have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GO Ahead Eagles's away record: 2W 3D 4L from 9 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Heracles lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–4 with GO Ahead Eagles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
GO Ahead Eagles — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 53% versus GO Ahead Eagles 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Heracles 42% | GO Ahead Eagles 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.31 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.084 / defence 1.068 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.588 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.358. Data: 19 Heracles games / 19 GO Ahead Eagles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 47% | Draw 29% | GO Ahead Eagles 24%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | GO Ahead Eagles 4.17. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 50% | GO Ahead Eagles 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 47% | Draw 29% | GO Ahead Eagles 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Heracles 1.31 / GO Ahead Eagles 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.084 / def 1.068 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.588 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Heracles (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
0.85
GO Ahead Eagles xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles kick off?
Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Heracles 1 - 1 GO Ahead Eagles.
Where is Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles part of?
Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 47% chance of winning, GO Ahead Eagles a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Heracles and GO Ahead Eagles will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and GO Ahead Eagles?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | GO Ahead Eagles 1W.
What form are Heracles and GO Ahead Eagles in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Heracles's attack rating (1.08) and GO Ahead Eagles's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GO Ahead Eagles's attack (0.59x) against Heracles's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.49
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.16
0.85
GO Ahead Eagles xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Heracles and GO Ahead Eagles expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Heracles and 0.85 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Heracles have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 4D 10L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GO Ahead Eagles's form line: 6W 3D 10L from 19 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Heracles against 1.11 for GO Ahead Eagles. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Heracles have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, GO Ahead Eagles have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; GO Ahead Eagles are on 1.00 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and GO Ahead Eagles in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while GO Ahead Eagles have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or GO Ahead Eagles away?
Heracles's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.89 PPG; GO Ahead Eagles away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GO Ahead Eagles won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GO Ahead Eagles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Heracles
1
Draws
4
GO Ahead Eagles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and GO Ahead Eagles?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, GO Ahead Eagles have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and GO Ahead Eagles last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles 4-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and GO Ahead Eagles?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
GO Ahead Eagles see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, GO Ahead Eagles 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Heracles) and 33% (GO Ahead Eagles).
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles in 33%; Heracles have failed to score in 33% of games; GO Ahead Eagles in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / GO Ahead Eagles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play GO Ahead Eagles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Heracles's recent matches and 33% of GO Ahead Eagles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs GO Ahead Eagles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Heracles's recent games and 33% of GO Ahead Eagles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Heracles and GO Ahead Eagles share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 20, as Heracles and GO Ahead Eagles drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.31 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 0.85 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.08 / defence 1.07 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.59 / defence 1.12, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 47% | Draw 29% | GO Ahead Eagles 24%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 42%, GO Ahead Eagles 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.00 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.