Heerenveen 1-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heerenveen face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 21 as Heerenveen welcome Feyenoord to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 February 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Heerenveen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Abe Lenstra Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Feyenoord's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Heerenveen's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Heerenveen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Feyenoord in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Heerenveen, 2 for Feyenoord and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Heerenveen trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Feyenoord trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 50% versus Feyenoord 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 48% | Feyenoord 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.05 xG and Feyenoord 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.902 / defence 1.138 | Feyenoord attack 1.365 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.211. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Heerenveen games / 54 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 19% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 55%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Feyenoord 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 60% | Feyenoord 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 19% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Heerenveen 1.05 / Feyenoord 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.902 / def 1.138 | Feyenoord attack 1.365 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Feyenoord xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs Feyenoord kick off?
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Heerenveen 1 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Heerenveen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Feyenoord part of?
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 19% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Heerenveen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Feyenoord?
Record (3 meetings): Heerenveen 0W | Draws 1 | Feyenoord 2W.
What form are Heerenveen and Feyenoord in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heerenveen's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
19%
5.32
27%
3.75
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.94
1.88
Feyenoord xG
5.32
19%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
15%
6.56
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
3%
34.91
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.88 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Heerenveen have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 17W 14D 23L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord's form line: 34W 12D 8L from 54 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heerenveen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Heerenveen have posted 1.30 PPG from 27 outings (10W 5D 12L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 17W 5D 5L from 27 away games — 2.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.24 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 34W 12D 8L in their last 54 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.30 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Heerenveen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heerenveen have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Feyenoord won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heerenveen's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Heerenveen
2
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 1, Feyenoord have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Heerenveen 2-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 59%, Feyenoord 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Heerenveen and 63% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 37%; Heerenveen have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Heerenveen's games and 63% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Heerenveen's matches and 63% of Feyenoord's.
Do Heerenveen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Heerenveen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Heerenveen 1-2 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.05 xG and Feyenoord 1.88 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.90 / defence 1.14 against Feyenoord attack 1.36 / defence 0.80, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 19% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 55%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 48%, Feyenoord 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.