Groningen 4-2 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees PSV Eindhoven travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Euroborg this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PSV Eindhoven have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. PSV Eindhoven's 2.40 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Groningen's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Groningen, 2 for PSV Eindhoven and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 64% and PSV Eindhoven 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Groningen 52% | PSV Eindhoven 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.45 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.877 / defence 1.343 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.410 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.293. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — the away xG of 2.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Groningen games / 44 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 21% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 59%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 4.76 | Draw 5.00 | PSV Eindhoven 1.69. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 2.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 70% | PSV Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 21% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 70% | xG Groningen 1.45 / PSV Eindhoven 2.45 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.877 / def 1.343 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.410 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
2.45
PSV Eindhoven xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Groningen 4 - 2 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 21% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 59% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Groningen and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (2 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 2W.
What form are Groningen and PSV Eindhoven in?
Groningen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.88x the league average against PSV Eindhoven's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 2.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 1-3 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
21%
4.72
20%
5.06
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
1 – 3
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.90
2.45
PSV Eindhoven xG
4.72
21%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
9%
11.58
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
2%
54.68
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Groningen and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Groningen and 2.45 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Groningen have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 11D 22L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 34W 3D 7L from 44 games, 2.39 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.39 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.00 PPG from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 15W 3D 4L from 22 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.75 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 34W 3D 7L in their last 44 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.00 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when PSV Eindhoven won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Groningen
0
Draws
7
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PSV Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Groningen 1-2 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 59%, PSV Eindhoven 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Groningen) and 77% (PSV Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Groningen's games and 64% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of Groningen's matches and 77% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Groningen and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over PSV Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat PSV Eindhoven 4-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.45 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.45 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.88 / defence 1.34 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.41 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 21% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 59%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Groningen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 52%, PSV Eindhoven 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.