Groningen 0-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees NEC Nijmegen travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 April 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 2W 2D 6L at Euroborg — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NEC Nijmegen — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Groningen have won 1, NEC Nijmegen 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 60% versus NEC Nijmegen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 54% | NEC Nijmegen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 0.85 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.760 / defence 1.176 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.855 / defence 0.687. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.278. Groningen's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NEC Nijmegen's defence strength of 0.687 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Groningen games / 63 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 22% | Draw 33% | NEC Nijmegen 45%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | NEC Nijmegen 2.22. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | NEC Nijmegen 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 22% | Draw 33% | NEC Nijmegen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Groningen 0.85 / NEC Nijmegen 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.760 / def 1.176 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.855 / def 0.687 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.28
NEC Nijmegen xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Groningen 0 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 22% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Groningen and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (3 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Groningen and NEC Nijmegen in?
Groningen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.76) and NEC Nijmegen's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
22%
4.46
33%
3.03
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.13
1.28
NEC Nijmegen xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
6%
16.11
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 15.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Groningen and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Groningen and 1.28 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 13W 14D 36L from 63 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 17W 22D 24L across 63 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 0.84 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 7W 9D 15L from 31 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 11W 8D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.21 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Current Season
NEC Nijmegen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 13W 14D 36L in their last 63 games (0.84 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 17W 22D 24L in their last 63 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.97 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Groningen
1
Draws
4
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and NEC Nijmegen?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Groningen 2-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 58%, NEC Nijmegen 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Groningen) and 42% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 32%; Groningen have failed to score in 29% of games; NEC Nijmegen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Groningen's recent matches and 45% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Groningen's recent games and 42% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out Groningen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Groningen 0-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 0.85 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.28 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Groningen fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.76 / defence 1.18 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.85 / defence 0.69, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 22% | Draw 33% | NEC Nijmegen 45%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 54%, NEC Nijmegen 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 0.84 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.