Groningen 0-2 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Groningen and Heerenveen meet at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 March 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
Groningen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Heerenveen have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Groningen lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 1–3 with Heerenveen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Groningen half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Heerenveen half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 59% versus Heerenveen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 52% | Heerenveen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.30 xG and Heerenveen 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.857 / defence 1.134 | Heerenveen attack 0.929 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.317. Data: 59 Groningen games / 59 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 34% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 38%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Heerenveen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heerenveen are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 60% | Heerenveen 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 34% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Groningen 1.30 / Heerenveen 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.857 / def 1.134 | Heerenveen attack 0.929 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Heerenveen xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Heerenveen kick off?
Groningen vs Heerenveen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Groningen 0 - 2 Heerenveen.
Where is Groningen vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Heerenveen part of?
Groningen vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 34% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Groningen and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Heerenveen?
Record (3 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 1 | Heerenveen 2W.
What form are Groningen and Heerenveen in?
Groningen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Groningen's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (0.93x) against Groningen's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
34%
2.96
28%
3.54
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.68
1.39
Heerenveen xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Groningen and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Groningen and 1.39 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Groningen have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 13W 14D 32L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heerenveen's form line: 18W 15D 26L from 59 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Groningen against 1.17 for Heerenveen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.03 PPG from 29 outings (7W 9D 13L).
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 8W 10D 11L from 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Groningen are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.10 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 13W 14D 32L in their last 59 games (0.90 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 18W 15D 26L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Heerenveen away?
Heerenveen's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.03 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Groningen have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Groningen
1
Draws
4
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Heerenveen?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, Heerenveen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Heerenveen 0-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Heerenveen see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 59%, Heerenveen 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Groningen) and 41% (Heerenveen).
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 31%; Groningen have failed to score in 28% of games; Heerenveen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Groningen's recent matches and 45% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Groningen's recent games and 41% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Groningen 0-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.30 xG and Heerenveen 1.39 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.86 / defence 1.13 against Heerenveen attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 34% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 38%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 52%, Heerenveen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Heerenveen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 0.90 PPG, Heerenveen 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.