GO Ahead Eagles 0-3 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates GO Ahead Eagles at 47%, yet the head-to-head data favours AZ Alkmaar — this GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles host AZ Alkmaar at De Adelaarshorst in Eredivisie (matchday 31). Kick-off is Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
GO Ahead Eagles — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GO Ahead Eagles at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — GO Ahead Eagles are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AZ Alkmaar stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, AZ Alkmaar have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (GO Ahead Eagles) versus 1.30 (AZ Alkmaar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of GO Ahead Eagles's games and 70% of AZ Alkmaar's (from GO Ahead Eagles's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
AZ Alkmaar have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for GO Ahead Eagles.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 AZ Alkmaar — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. AZ Alkmaar have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 4.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
GO Ahead Eagles in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GO Ahead Eagles 53% versus AZ Alkmaar 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 56% | AZ Alkmaar 62%). Note also that AZ Alkmaar surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while GO Ahead Eagles recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 1.76 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.142 / defence 0.940 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.051 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.305. Data: built from GO Ahead Eagles's last 64 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 64.
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 47% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 27%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 2.11 | Draw 3.90 | AZ Alkmaar 3.70. GO Ahead Eagles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GO Ahead Eagles are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GO Ahead Eagles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (GO Ahead Eagles's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: GO Ahead Eagles 60% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 31 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 47% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG GO Ahead Eagles 1.76 / AZ Alkmaar 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.142 / def 0.940 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.051 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: GO Ahead Eagles (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.29
AZ Alkmaar xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar FAQs
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 4 May 2025 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
GO Ahead Eagles 0 - 3 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 31) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 47% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GO Ahead Eagles the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GO Ahead Eagles's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against AZ Alkmaar's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus GO Ahead Eagles's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from GO Ahead Eagles's last 64 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GO Ahead Eagles Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.90
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
3.04
1.29
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
5%
21.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.29 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, GO Ahead Eagles have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 26W 18D 20L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 32W 16D 16L from 64 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: GO Ahead Eagles on 1.50 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, GO Ahead Eagles have posted 1.71 PPG from their last 31 home games (15W 8D 8L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 13W 10D 8L from their last 31 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.84 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
GO Ahead Eagles (Home) vs AZ Alkmaar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GO Ahead Eagles
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
❓ GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar Form FAQs
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 26W 18D 20L in their last 64 games (1.50 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 32W 16D 16L in their last 64 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
GO Ahead Eagles's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 1.71 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.58 PPG.
Have GO Ahead Eagles or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
GO Ahead Eagles have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Aug 2023, when AZ Alkmaar won AZ Alkmaar 5-1 GO Ahead Eagles.
GO Ahead Eagles's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
GO Ahead Eagles
3
Draws
7
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, GO Ahead Eagles have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: AZ Alkmaar 5-2 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GO Ahead Eagles 55%, AZ Alkmaar 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for GO Ahead Eagles and 61% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of GO Ahead Eagles's recent matches and 52% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of GO Ahead Eagles's matches and 61% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of GO Ahead Eagles's recent matches and 74% of AZ Alkmaar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 0-3 hammering of GO Ahead Eagles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat GO Ahead Eagles 0-3 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.76 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.29 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. GO Ahead Eagles fell 1.8 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.14 / defence 0.94 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 47% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 27%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual AZ Alkmaar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 56%, AZ Alkmaar 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GO Ahead Eagles 1.50 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eredivisie fixtures — matchday 31
All Eredivisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →