Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Stadion plays host to Fortuna Sittard versus Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Sittard have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fortuna Sittard at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Willem II (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
Willem II's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Fortuna Sittard's 0.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Willem II's 0.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 0 for Willem II and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fortuna Sittard goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 44% versus Willem II 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 56% | Willem II 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.34 xG and Willem II 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.658 / defence 1.264 | Willem II attack 0.684 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.309. Fortuna Sittard's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Fortuna Sittard games / 29 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 41% | Draw 29% | Willem II 31%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Willem II 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fortuna Sittard 30% | Willem II 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 41% | Draw 29% | Willem II 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.34 / Willem II 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.658 / def 1.264 | Willem II attack 0.684 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Willem II xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 41% chance of winning, Willem II a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Willem II?
Record (3 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 1W | Draws 2 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Willem II in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Willem II (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.68x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.50
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.47
1.13
Willem II xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.13 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 18W 17D 28L from 63 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 21L across 63 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 13W 6D 12L from 31 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 12W 8D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.63 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Willem II in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 18W 17D 28L in their last 63 games (1.13 PPG), while Willem II have gone 28W 14D 21L in their last 63 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Willem II away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.45 PPG; Willem II away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fortuna Sittard
2
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, Willem II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Willem II?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 45%, Willem II 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fortuna Sittard) and 32% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 36% of games; Willem II in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 52% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Fortuna Sittard's recent games and 32% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Willem II tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Willem II in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out Willem II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Willem II 1-0 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.34 xG and Willem II 1.13 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Willem II landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.66 / defence 1.26 against Willem II attack 0.68 / defence 1.24, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 41% | Draw 29% | Willem II 31%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 56%, Willem II 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.