Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to face Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Fortuna Sittard (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 3W 2D 5L at Fortuna Sittard Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.00 for NAC Breda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Sittard lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with NAC Breda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 59% versus NAC Breda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 59% | NAC Breda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.93 xG and NAC Breda 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.937 / defence 1.300 | NAC Breda attack 0.713 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.304. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Fortuna Sittard games / 63 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 52% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 21%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | NAC Breda 4.76. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Sittard are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 90% | NAC Breda 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 52% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.93 / NAC Breda 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.937 / def 1.300 | NAC Breda attack 0.713 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.21
NAC Breda xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 52% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda?
Record (3 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 1W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.94x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.71x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.75
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.13
1.21
NAC Breda xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.45
3%
32.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.21 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortuna Sittard come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 13D 29L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 0.90 PPG from 63 outings (13W 18D 32L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 0.90 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fortuna Sittard's home form reads 14W 4D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 0.52 points per game from 31 outings (3W 7D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Sittard come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 21W 13D 29L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 13W 18D 32L in their last 63 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or NAC Breda away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.48 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fortuna Sittard
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 48%, NAC Breda 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Fortuna Sittard) and 58% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; NAC Breda in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 45% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 58% of NAC Breda's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.93 xG and NAC Breda 1.21 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.94 / defence 1.30 against NAC Breda attack 0.71 / defence 1.22, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 52% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 21%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 59%, NAC Breda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.21 PPG, NAC Breda 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.