Fortuna Sittard 1-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fortuna Sittard face NAC Breda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to face Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 18:45 UK time.
Form
Fortuna Sittard (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Fortuna Sittard have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
NAC Breda's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 0.60 for NAC Breda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 1 for NAC Breda and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Fortuna Sittard 0–1 NAC Breda — a NAC Breda win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 45% versus NAC Breda 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 55% | NAC Breda 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fortuna Sittard surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while NAC Breda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.30 xG and NAC Breda 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.667 / defence 1.142 | NAC Breda attack 0.765 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.333. Fortuna Sittard's attack rating of 0.667 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. NAC Breda's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Data: built from Fortuna Sittard's last 65 games and NAC Breda's last 31.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 38% | Draw 30% | NAC Breda 32%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.61 | Draw 3.36 | NAC Breda 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Sittard are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Fortuna Sittard's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fortuna Sittard 30% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 32 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 38% | Draw 30% | NAC Breda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.30 / NAC Breda 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.667 / def 1.142 | NAC Breda attack 0.765 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.17
NAC Breda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 32) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 38% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.67x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.77x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Fortuna Sittard's last 65 games and NAC Breda's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.36
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.46
1.17
NAC Breda xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.17 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortuna Sittard come into this having played 65 games, going 19W 17D 29L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.34 PPG from 65 outings (23W 18D 24L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.34 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fortuna Sittard's home form reads 13W 6D 12L across their last 31 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 7D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.49 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 65%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
Fortuna Sittard (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 19W 17D 29L in their last 65 games (1.14 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 23W 18D 24L in their last 65 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or NAC Breda away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.45 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fortuna Sittard
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 42%, NAC Breda 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Fortuna Sittard) and 58% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 36% of games; NAC Breda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 58% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 58% of NAC Breda's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 71% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out NAC Breda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat NAC Breda 1-0 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.30 xG and NAC Breda 1.17 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.67 / defence 1.14 against NAC Breda attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 38% | Draw 30% | NAC Breda 32%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 55%, NAC Breda 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.14 PPG, NAC Breda 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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