Fortuna Sittard 1-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Heracles travel to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to take on Fortuna Sittard. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Sittard Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at Fortuna Sittard Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Sittard 1.30 PPG, Heracles 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 2 for Heracles and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Heracles trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 49% versus Heracles 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 51% | Heracles 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 2.02 xG and Heracles 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.882 / defence 0.838 | Heracles attack 0.765 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.456. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Fortuna Sittard games / 47 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 63% | Draw 21% | Heracles 17%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Heracles 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Sittard (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 30% | Heracles 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 63% | Draw 21% | Heracles 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Fortuna Sittard 2.02 / Heracles 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.882 / def 0.838 | Heracles attack 0.765 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Heracles xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 1 Heracles.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 63% chance of winning, Heracles a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
Record (6 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 2W | Draws 2 | Heracles 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Heracles (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.88x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
63%
1.60
21%
4.82
17%
6.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.96
0.93
Heracles xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
6.02
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
13%
7.56
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
2%
45.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 0.93 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 16W 10D 21L from 47 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 23L across 47 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 1.23 PPG, Heracles on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 12W 2D 9L from 23 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Fortuna Sittard are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Heracles's away record stands at 4W 3D 16L across 23 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Sittard come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.34 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heracles in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 16W 10D 21L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while Heracles have gone 13W 11D 23L in their last 47 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Heracles away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.65 PPG; Heracles away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2023, when Fortuna Sittard won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortuna Sittard
3
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Heracles 2-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 30%, Heracles 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fortuna Sittard) and 65% (Heracles). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 26% of games; Heracles in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 48% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 65% of Heracles's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Heracles tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Heracles in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard and Heracles share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as Fortuna Sittard and Heracles drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 2.02 xG and Heracles 0.93 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.88 / defence 0.84 against Heracles attack 0.77 / defence 1.32, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 63% | Draw 21% | Heracles 17%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 51%, Heracles 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.23 PPG, Heracles 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.