Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 9 as Fortuna Sittard welcome Cambuur to Fortuna Sittard Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortuna Sittard — All Games: 1W 2D 4L from 7 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.71 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Sittard's home record at Fortuna Sittard Stadion: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Eredivisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 4W 0D 4L from 8 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.62 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 4.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cambuur — 0.79 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.71). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 71%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 71% and Cambuur 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Sittard 71% | Cambuur 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.93 xG and Cambuur 2.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.833 / defence 1.552 | Cambuur attack 0.956 / defence 1.737. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.469. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.737 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Fortuna Sittard games / 8 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 35% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 45%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.86 | Draw 5.00 | Cambuur 2.22. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 2.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 5.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 75% | Cambuur 33%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 35% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 76% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.93 / Cambuur 2.18 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.833 / def 1.552 | Cambuur attack 0.956 / def 1.737 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
2.18
Cambuur xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 35% chance of winning, Cambuur a 45% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.29 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Cambuur (all comps): 4W-0D-4L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.62 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 2.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
35%
2.84
20%
4.94
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
4.11
2.18
Cambuur xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.14
Clean Sheet
11%
8.84
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
4%
25.12
6%
15.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.18 for Cambuur, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 1W 2D 4L from 7 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 3L across 7 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cambuur's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 2.14 scored and 2.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 0.33 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Cambuur won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, Cambuur have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2023, when Cambuur 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 67%, Cambuur 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fortuna Sittard and 100% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 33%; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 33% of games; Cambuur in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 33% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 100% of Cambuur's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat Cambuur 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Cambuur 1-0 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.93 xG and Cambuur 2.18 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Sittard fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cambuur landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.83 / defence 1.55 against Cambuur attack 0.96 / defence 1.74, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 35% | Draw 20% | Cambuur 45%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Fortuna Sittard win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 71%, Cambuur 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 4.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.