Feyenoord 3-0 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (76%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Feyenoord face Heerenveen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Heerenveen travel to Stadion Feijenoord to take on Feyenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 17:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Feyenoord have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Heerenveen stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Heerenveen have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Feyenoord are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Feyenoord: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Heerenveen, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2024, ended Feyenoord 3–2 Heerenveen — a Feyenoord win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Feyenoord and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Feyenoord trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Heerenveen trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 56% versus Heerenveen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 65% | Heerenveen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.64 xG and Heerenveen 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.108 / defence 0.959 | Heerenveen attack 0.692 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.256. Heerenveen's defence rating of 1.431 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Feyenoord's projected output up. Heerenveen's attack rating of 0.692 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 46 games and Heerenveen's last 46.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 76% | Draw 15% | Heerenveen 9%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.32 | Draw 6.79 | Heerenveen 10.63. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (76%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 40% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 76% | Draw 15% | Heerenveen 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Feyenoord 2.64 / Heerenveen 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.108 / def 0.959 | Heerenveen attack 0.692 / def 1.431 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Heerenveen xG
52%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs Heerenveen kick off?
Feyenoord vs Heerenveen kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Feyenoord 3 - 0 Heerenveen.
Where is Feyenoord vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Heerenveen part of?
Feyenoord vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 13) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 76% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Feyenoord and Heerenveen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Feyenoord vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.11x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 2.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 46 games and Heerenveen's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
76%
1.32
15%
6.79
9%
10.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.47
0.83
Heerenveen xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.79
15%
Draw
10.63
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
7%
14.01
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
1%
148.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.83 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 33W 10D 3L from 46 games, a 2.37 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 23L across 46 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 1.26 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heerenveen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 16W 4D 2L from their last 22 home games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 3W 4D 15L across their last 22 away games, a 0.59 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heerenveen's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.61 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.43 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
Feyenoord (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Feyenoord vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 33W 10D 3L in their last 46 games (2.37 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 14W 9D 23L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Heerenveen away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.36 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Heerenveen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Heerenveen in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Sep 2023, when Feyenoord won Feyenoord 6-1 Heerenveen.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Feyenoord
2
Draws
2
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Heerenveen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 6, Heerenveen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Heerenveen 5-3 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Heerenveen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 46%, Heerenveen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Feyenoord and 64% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Heerenveen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and Heerenveen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 50% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feyenoord and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Feyenoord's matches and 64% of Heerenveen's.
Do Feyenoord and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 77% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Heerenveen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Heerenveen 3-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.64 xG and Heerenveen 0.83 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Heerenveen landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against Heerenveen attack 0.69 / defence 1.43, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 76% | Draw 15% | Heerenveen 9%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 65%, Heerenveen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Heerenveen's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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