Feyenoord 1-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Feyenoord (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Feyenoord face Fortuna Sittard.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard meet at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Feyenoord have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Feyenoord have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Fortuna Sittard's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form favours the hosts. Feyenoord's 2.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Fortuna Sittard's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record in our data favours Feyenoord, who have won 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Fortuna Sittard — Fortuna Sittard have 0 wins, with 2 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Feyenoord 1–0 Fortuna Sittard — a Feyenoord win.

The head-to-head data gives Feyenoord an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 55% versus Fortuna Sittard 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 66% | Fortuna Sittard 55%). Note also that Fortuna Sittard surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Feyenoord recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.02 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.127 / defence 0.885 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.728 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.248. Fortuna Sittard's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 47 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 47.

Result probabilities: Feyenoord 66% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Sittard 14%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.52 | Draw 4.94 | Fortuna Sittard 7.17. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and Fortuna Sittard's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 40% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Sittard 30% (last 10 away games).

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