FC Volendam 2-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 53%, yet in-form Heracles provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Volendam vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Heracles meet at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Volendam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Heracles (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Heracles are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 63% and Heracles 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 68% | Heracles 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.07 xG and Heracles 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.881 / defence 1.059 | Heracles attack 0.840 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.807 / away 1.453. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 FC Volendam games / 4 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 53% | Draw 26% | Heracles 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Heracles 4.76. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heracles (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Heracles 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 53% | Draw 26% | Heracles 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Volendam 2.07 / Heracles 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.881 / def 1.059 | Heracles attack 0.840 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.807 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Heracles xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Heracles kick off?
FC Volendam vs Heracles kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Heracles?
FC Volendam 2 - 2 Heracles.
Where is FC Volendam vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Heracles part of?
FC Volendam vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 53% chance of winning, Heracles a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Volendam and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and Heracles in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Heracles (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.88x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (0.84x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.83
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.36
1.29
Heracles xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
13%
7.93
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
3%
37.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.29 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 10W 6D 22L from 38 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 26W 3D 9L across 38 games — 2.13 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Heracles by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 9W 1D 8L from 18 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Heracles's away record stands at 10W 1D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.72 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 2.58 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Heracles in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 10W 6D 22L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while Heracles have gone 26W 3D 9L in their last 38 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Heracles away?
Heracles's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.56 PPG; Heracles away: 1.72 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Heracles in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 3-0 on 25 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
2
Draws
0
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Heracles?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Heracles have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Heracles 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Heracles?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 67%, Heracles 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Volendam and 78% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Volendam's games and 61% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Volendam's matches and 78% of Heracles's.
Do FC Volendam and Heracles tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Heracles in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam and Heracles share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as FC Volendam and Heracles drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.07 xG and Heracles 1.29 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Heracles attack 0.84 / defence 1.30, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 53% | Draw 26% | Heracles 21%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, Heracles 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.