FC Volendam 0-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 41%, yet in-form Almere City FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Volendam vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Volendam welcome Almere City FC to Kras Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 14 January 2024 at 11:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Volendam stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Volendam are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Almere City FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Almere City FC away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Almere City FC's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Volendam's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC Volendam's games and 70% of Almere City FC's (from FC Volendam's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, FC Volendam have won 2, Almere City FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2021, ended FC Volendam 3–2 Almere City FC — a FC Volendam win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 64% versus Almere City FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 72% | Almere City FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.74 xG and Almere City FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.853 / defence 1.317 | Almere City FC attack 0.744 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.546. Almere City FC's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Volendam's projected output up. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.744 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.51. FC Volendam's defence rating of 1.317 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almere City FC's projected output up. Data: built from FC Volendam's last 50 games and Almere City FC's last 16.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 41% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.42 | Draw 3.69 | Almere City FC 3.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Volendam's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Volendam 60% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 17 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 41% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG FC Volendam 1.74 / Almere City FC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.853 / def 1.317 | Almere City FC attack 0.744 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.546 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Almere City FC xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Volendam vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does FC Volendam vs Almere City FC kick off?
FC Volendam vs Almere City FC kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
FC Volendam 0 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Almere City FC part of?
FC Volendam vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 17) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 41% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Volendam and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Volendam vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.85) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Volendam's last 50 games and Almere City FC's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.69
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.26
1.51
Almere City FC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Volendam vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.51 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 13W 8D 29L from 50 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 15L across 50 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 11W 2D 11L from their last 24 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 12W 5D 7L across their last 24 away games, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.42 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Almere City FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
FC Volendam (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Volendam
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ FC Volendam vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are FC Volendam and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 13W 8D 29L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 23W 12D 15L in their last 50 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.46 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 3 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Volendam vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Almere City FC?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Volendam have won 2, Almere City FC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 October 2026: Almere City FC 1-0 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 67%, Almere City FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (FC Volendam) and 42% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Volendam vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Volendam and Almere City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Volendam's games and 46% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Volendam and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Volendam's matches and 42% of Almere City FC's.
Do FC Volendam and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 75% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat FC Volendam 0-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.74 xG and Almere City FC 1.51 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Volendam fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.85 / defence 1.32 against Almere City FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 41% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 32%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 72%, Almere City FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almere City FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eredivisie fixtures — matchday 17
All Eredivisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →