Excelsior 0-3 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Twente (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Excelsior face Twente.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 21 as Excelsior welcome Twente to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Twente have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Twente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Twente have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Twente's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Excelsior's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Excelsior, 2 for Twente and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 2–4 with Twente winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Twente in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 56% versus Twente 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 63% | Twente 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.23 xG and Twente 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.056 / defence 0.992 | Twente attack 0.928 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.434. Twente's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Excelsior games / 54 Twente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 32% | Draw 32% | Twente 36%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Twente 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Twente are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Twente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 80% | Twente 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 32% | Draw 32% | Twente 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Excelsior 1.23 / Twente 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.056 / def 0.992 | Twente attack 0.928 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Twente (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Twente xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Twente kick off?
Excelsior vs Twente kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Twente?
Excelsior 0 - 3 Twente.
Where is Excelsior vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Twente part of?
Excelsior vs Twente is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 32% chance of winning, Twente a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Excelsior and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Twente?
Record (3 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 1 | Twente 2W.
What form are Excelsior and Twente in?
Excelsior (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Twente (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Excelsior's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Twente's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Twente's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
32%
3.13
32%
3.14
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.55
1.32
Twente xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.32 for Twente, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior come into this having played 54 games, going 13W 14D 27L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Twente sit at 1.96 PPG from 54 outings (30W 16D 8L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Twente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Twente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Excelsior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Excelsior's home form reads 10W 8D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Twente have taken 1.41 points per game from 27 outings (9W 11D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Twente's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.94 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Twente in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Twente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Twente in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 14D 27L in their last 54 games (0.98 PPG), while Twente have gone 30W 16D 8L in their last 54 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Twente away?
Excelsior's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.41 PPG; Twente away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Twente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Twente in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when Twente won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Twente specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior
2
Draws
3
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Twente?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, Twente have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Twente 0-0 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Twente see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 59%, Twente 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Excelsior) and 44% (Twente).
On the defensive side: Twente in 33%; Excelsior have failed to score in 26% of games; Twente in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Twente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Excelsior's recent matches and 48% of Twente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Excelsior's recent games and 44% of Twente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Twente run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente beat Excelsior 0-3 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.23 xG and Twente 1.32 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Twente outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Twente attack 0.93 / defence 0.73, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 32% | Draw 32% | Twente 36%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 63%, Twente 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Twente's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Twente (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.