Excelsior 2-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Excelsior host PEC Zwolle at Stadion Woudestein in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 December 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior at Stadion Woudestein this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Woudestein. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Excelsior at 1.30 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Excelsior have won 0, PEC Zwolle 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 52% versus PEC Zwolle 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 58% | PEC Zwolle 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.60 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.592 / defence 0.973 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.039 / defence 1.595. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.415. Excelsior's attack strength of 0.592 is below the league average — the 1.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.595 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Excelsior games / 50 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 42% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 34%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | PEC Zwolle 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 30% | PEC Zwolle 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 42% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Excelsior 1.60 / PEC Zwolle 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.592 / def 0.973 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.039 / def 1.595 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.43
PEC Zwolle xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Stadion Woudestein.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
Excelsior 2 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 42% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Excelsior and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and PEC Zwolle?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 2W.
What form are Excelsior and PEC Zwolle in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.59x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.15
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.03
1.43
PEC Zwolle xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Excelsior and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.43 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior's recent record stands at 26W 8D 16L from 50 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 20L across 50 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 15W 3D 7L from 25 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 4W 10D 11L across 25 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.26 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 26W 8D 16L in their last 50 games (1.72 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 15W 15D 20L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Excelsior's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.92 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Excelsior or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and PEC Zwolle runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Excelsior's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Excelsior
1
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and PEC Zwolle?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when PEC Zwolle 2-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 36%, PEC Zwolle 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Excelsior) and 60% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Excelsior's recent matches and 68% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Excelsior's recent games and 60% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out PEC Zwolle 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat PEC Zwolle 2-1 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.60 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.43 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.59 / defence 0.97 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.04 / defence 1.59, drawn from 15/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 42% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 34%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 58%, PEC Zwolle 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.