Excelsior 1-5 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Groningen make the trip to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to face Excelsior in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this season.
Groningen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Groningen have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Excelsior, 1.70 for Groningen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Excelsior register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Groningen in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Excelsior lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Excelsior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 66% and Groningen 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 68% | Groningen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.51 xG and Groningen 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.873 / defence 0.907 | Groningen attack 0.988 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.786. Data: 41 Excelsior games / 41 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 34% | Draw 29% | Groningen 38%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Groningen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 70% | Groningen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 34% | Draw 29% | Groningen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Excelsior 1.51 / Groningen 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.873 / def 0.907 | Groningen attack 0.988 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.786 • Poisson stance: Groningen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Groningen xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Groningen kick off?
Excelsior vs Groningen kicked off at 14:45 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Groningen?
Excelsior 1 - 5 Groningen.
Where is Excelsior vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Groningen part of?
Excelsior vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 34% chance of winning, Groningen a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Excelsior and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Groningen?
Record (4 meetings): Excelsior 2W | Draws 0 | Groningen 2W.
What form are Excelsior and Groningen in?
Excelsior (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Groningen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.99x) against Excelsior's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.48
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.11
1.60
Groningen xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
7%
14.75
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.60 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 10D 18L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen's form line: 17W 8D 16L from 41 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Excelsior against 1.44 for Groningen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (6W 3D 11L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 8W 3D 9L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.54 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Groningen in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Groningen have gone 17W 8D 16L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Groningen away?
Groningen's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.05 PPG; Groningen away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 1-5 on 11 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Excelsior
0
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Groningen?
From 5 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 2, Groningen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Excelsior 1-5 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 60%, Groningen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Excelsior) and 45% (Groningen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Excelsior's games and 60% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Excelsior's recent games and 45% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and Groningen tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Groningen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Excelsior 1-5 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.51 xG and Groningen 1.60 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 1.60 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.87 / defence 0.91 against Groningen attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 34% | Draw 29% | Groningen 38%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 68%, Groningen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.20 PPG, Groningen 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.